The model
Deliberately simple, because a simple model with your data beats a sophisticated one with someone else's benchmarks.
- Contacted leads = monthly leads × contact rate. Everything else received no response at all.
- Fast-handled leads = contacted × the share answered within an hour; the rest are slow-handled.
- Current deals = (fast × fast close rate) + (slow × slow close rate).
- Achievable deals = all monthly leads × fast close rate.
- Gap = achievable − current, valued at your average deal value.
Getting the inputs right
| Input | Source | Common mistake |
|---|---|---|
| Leads per month | CRM record creation count | Counting form submissions rather than records, which hides integration loss |
| Contact rate | Records with at least one genuine contact attempt | Counting logged activity, including calls nobody answered |
| Fast share | Records with first contact within an hour of creation | Measuring from assignment rather than creation |
| Fast close rate | Won ÷ fast-handled, over a full sales cycle | Using a single strong month |
| Slow close rate | Won ÷ slow-handled, same period | Assuming zero — it is rarely zero, and overstating the gap costs credibility |
| Deal value | Average won deal value in the same period | Using list price or a target rather than actual |
Reading the output
Treat the gap as the size of the operating problem, not as a revenue forecast. It answers one question well: is fixing routing worth a fortnight of work, or is the real constraint somewhere else? If the gap is small, the constraint is probably lead quality or offer — and the handoff playbook is a better next step than routing.
- Never-contacted volume above a few percent is a structural failure, not a discipline issue.
- If the fast and slow close rates are almost equal, response time is not your constraint — believe the data.
- Re-run monthly after the change; the same four inputs prove whether the fix held.
Limits
- It assumes lead quality is comparable across the three groups. If your fast-handled leads are also your best leads, the ceiling is optimistic.
- It does not model capacity. Handling every lead fast may require staffing the calculator knows nothing about.
- It ignores nurture recovery, so it slightly overstates permanent loss.
Privacy
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Muhammad Sameed Abid
Muhammad Sameed Abid is a business operations, automation and growth systems professional with 9+ years across operations management, workflow and CRM automation, marketing operations and customer success. He is currently Head of Customer Success at GHA Marketing and writes here about the operating layer underneath growth.